RACS Engine · Alpha Signal Output
Where Institutional Conviction
Is Concentrating Right Now
Stocks where multiple independent activist hedge funds are simultaneously building new positions, filtered for low crowding and amplified by the current macro regime.
EvalGate: PASSED98.5% ticker provenance2,847 pipeline signals scored
#1 signal · 2024 Q4
JPM
RACS 0.2561
Activist buyers21
Strong buys7
Crowding4.1%
RegimeGoldilocks
2,847
Pipeline signals
Ticker-quarters scored across 12 data quarters
17
Avg activist buyers
Independent managers per displayed signal
26
High-conviction
Signals with 5+ strong-buy managers
10.9%
Avg crowding
Mean crowding penalty (lower is better)
How Every Score Is Built
Four evidence sources multiplied together. A stock must score well on ALL four simultaneously; no single factor can compensate for weakness in another.
consensus_weight
Capital behind it
Share of activist AUM in this ticker
×
log(activist_buyers + 1.1)
Independent agreement
How many managers independently bought
×
1 − crowding
Originality
Low institutional ownership = undiscovered
×
1 ± regime_weight × prob
Macro tailwind
Goldilocks regime multiplier
Score Landscape
Distribution of all displayed RACS scores across five quintile bands. Most signals cluster in lower quintiles; only a handful reach the top tier simultaneously on all four components.
Top 40 RACS Rankings · Most Recent Quarter
Click any column header to re-sort. Bars in the RACS Score column are relative to the top-ranked ticker.
| # | Ticker | RACS Score↓ | Activists | Strong Buys | Crowding | Conv. Raw | AUM Behind | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JPM | 0.2561 | 21 | 7 | 4.1% | 0.2171 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 2 | QCOM | 0.2488 | 20 | 2 | 6.3% | 0.2128 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 3 | ITW | 0.2422 | 22 | 17 | 7.7% | 0.2201 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 4 | ORCL | 0.2416 | 23 | 4 | 6.4% | 0.2152 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 5 | MSCI | 0.2280 | 28 | 14 | 13.5% | 0.2059 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 6 | V | 0.2228 | 24 | 3 | 4.4% | 0.1911 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 7 | AXP | 0.2218 | 25 | 7 | 10.6% | 0.1984 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 8 | META | 0.2199 | 15 | 7 | 9.5% | 0.1988 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 9 | ACN | 0.1873 | 22 | 14 | 4.8% | 0.1551 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 10 | CI | 0.1733 | 18 | 4 | 8.4% | 0.1544 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 11 | VZ | 0.1711 | 18 | 13 | 4.5% | 0.1467 | $0M | Recovery |
| 12 | SCHW | 0.1683 | 28 | 2 | 12.8% | 0.2391 | $0M | Rate Shock |
| 13 | AAPL | 0.1673 | 11 | 6 | 20.3% | 0.1651 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 14 | GOOGL | 0.1576 | 20 | 12 | 6.2% | 0.1331 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 15 | JNJ | 0.1243 | 9 | 3 | 14.1% | 0.1161 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 16 | BAC | 0.1225 | 27 | 14 | 19.8% | 0.1268 | $0M | Recovery |
| 17 | XOM | 0.1089 | 9 | 8 | 12.7% | 0.1542 | $0M | Rate Shock |
| 18 | LRCX | 0.1052 | 21 | 5 | 4.2% | 0.0911 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 19 | CSCO | 0.1022 | 25 | 22 | 7.7% | 0.0913 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 20 | TSLA | 0.0986 | 5 | 3 | 5.9% | 0.1301 | $0M | Rate Shock |
| 21 | MSFT | 0.0964 | 26 | 23 | 6.8% | 0.0813 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 22 | ETN | 0.0940 | 28 | 24 | 6.4% | 0.0843 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 23 | ABBV | 0.0936 | 10 | 3 | 12.3% | 0.0847 | $0M | Recovery |
| 24 | PM | 0.0912 | 9 | 4 | 15.0% | 0.0897 | $0M | Recovery |
| 25 | KO | 0.0882 | 18 | 4 | 4.6% | 0.0727 | $0M | Recovery |
| 26 | BMY | 0.0844 | 17 | 14 | 14.2% | 0.1319 | $0M | Recession Fear |
| 27 | HAL | 0.0828 | 16 | 7 | 5.1% | 0.1118 | $0M | Rate Shock |
| 28 | NVDA | 0.0812 | 23 | 17 | 16.9% | 0.0819 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 29 | UNH | 0.0784 | 3 | 2 | 18.3% | 0.0809 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 30 | SPGI | 0.0703 | 6 | 6 | 12.4% | 0.0658 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 31 | PNC | 0.0700 | 27 | 27 | 20.1% | 0.1140 | $0M | Rate Shock |
| 32 | AVGO | 0.0618 | 14 | 9 | 10.7% | 0.0565 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 33 | PG | 0.0592 | 7 | 3 | 18.8% | 0.0607 | $0M | Recovery |
| 34 | LLY | 0.0585 | 18 | 16 | 4.2% | 0.0478 | $0M | Recovery |
| 35 | CI | 0.0565 | 13 | 7 | 14.6% | 0.0531 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 36 | BRK.B | 0.0517 | 9 | 7 | 13.5% | 0.0472 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 37 | PFE | 0.0421 | 10 | 5 | 17.8% | 0.0656 | $0M | Recession Fear |
| 38 | HD | 0.0362 | 16 | 4 | 10.5% | 0.0340 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 39 | AMZN | 0.0299 | 19 | 13 | 14.2% | 0.0293 | $0M | Goldilocks |
| 40 | CRM | 0.0120 | 3 | 3 | 17.4% | 0.0120 | $0M | Goldilocks |
RACS Score· Final regime-adjusted score · higher = stronger
Activists· Independent Conviction Activist / Nimble Trader buyers
Strong Buys· Buyers who entered with > 50% conviction delta
Crowding· Green < 20% (undiscovered) · Red > 40% (fragile)
Conv. Raw· Pre-regime conviction score · compare to RACS to see regime multiplier effect
AUM Behind· Total activist capital in this ticker across all buyers
Signals by Macro Regime
Regime label at the time each signal was generated; baked into the RACS score.
Goldilocks
26
signals · 65%
Recovery
7
signals · 18%
Rate Shock
5
signals · 13%
Recession Fear
2
signals · 5%