RACS Engine · Alpha Signal Output

Where Institutional Conviction
Is Concentrating Right Now

Stocks where multiple independent activist hedge funds are simultaneously building new positions, filtered for low crowding and amplified by the current macro regime.

EvalGate: FAILED0.0% ticker provenance144 pipeline signals scored
#1 signal · 2023Q3
RACS 5.3825
Activist buyers3
Strong buys3
Crowding2.2%
RegimeGoldilocks
144
Pipeline signals
Ticker-quarters scored across 12 data quarters
2
Avg activist buyers
Independent managers per displayed signal
0
High-conviction
Signals with 5+ strong-buy managers
7.7%
Avg crowding
Mean crowding penalty (lower is better)
Signal Quality Indicators · From Backtest
⌛IC Half-Life
5dFast decay

Days until signal predictive power halves

◎Peak IC
0.103Strong

Information Coefficient at optimal holding horizon

✓Hit Rate
--Below chance

Fraction of trades that were profitable

How Every Score Is Built

Four evidence sources multiplied together. A stock must score well on ALL four simultaneously; no single factor can compensate for weakness in another.

consensus_weight
Capital behind it
Share of activist AUM in this ticker
×
log(activist_buyers + 1.1)
Independent agreement
How many managers independently bought
×
1 − crowding
Originality
Low institutional ownership = undiscovered
×
1 ± regime_weight × prob
Macro tailwind
Goldilocks regime multiplier

Score Landscape

Distribution of all displayed RACS scores across five quintile bands. Most signals cluster in lower quintiles; only a handful reach the top tier simultaneously on all four components.

RACS Score Distribution · 144 signals
Min0.0216
Median1.5452
Max5.3825
29
20%
Q1 (Lowest)
61
42%
Q2
47
33%
Q3
1
1%
Q4
6
4%
Q5 (Strongest)

Top 144 RACS Rankings · Most Recent Quarter

Click any column header to re-sort. Bars in the RACS Score column are relative to the top-ranked ticker.

#TickerRACS Score↓ActivistsStrong BuysCrowdingConv. RawAUM BehindRegime
1
5.3825
332.2%4.2330$0MGoldilocks
2
5.3789
332.3%4.2330$0MRecovery
3
5.3746
332.3%4.2330$0MRecovery
4
5.3572
332.6%4.2330$0MRecovery
5
5.3505
332.8%4.2330$0MRecovery
6
4.9848
338.7%4.1980$0MRecovery
7
4.0435
3312.6%3.5575$0MRecovery
8
3.0852
449.8%4.8889$0MRecession Fear
9
3.0520
4410.8%4.8898$0MRecession Fear
10
3.0039
4412.2%4.8897$0MRecession Fear
11
2.9409
220.0%2.2628$0MGoldilocks
12
2.9409
220.0%2.2628$0MGoldilocks
13
2.9408
220.0%2.2628$0MGoldilocks
14
2.9408
220.0%2.2628$0MRecovery
15
2.9060
332.7%4.2330$0MRecession Fear
16
2.8995
221.4%2.2628$0MRecovery
17
2.8977
221.5%2.2628$0MRecovery
18
2.8967
221.5%2.2628$0MGoldilocks
19
2.8939
221.6%2.2628$0MGoldilocks
20
2.8859
332.6%4.2330$0MRate Shock
21
2.8827
332.7%4.2330$0MRecession Fear
22
2.8826
332.7%4.2330$0MRecession Fear
23
2.8737
333.0%4.2330$0MRecession Fear
24
2.8667
333.3%4.2330$0MRecession Fear
25
2.8659
222.6%2.2628$0MRecovery
26
2.8623
222.7%2.2628$0MRecovery
27
2.8614
222.7%2.2628$0MGoldilocks
28
2.8585
222.8%2.2628$0MRecovery
29
2.8518
223.1%2.2628$0MRecovery
30
2.8477
223.2%2.2628$0MRecovery
31
2.8362
223.6%2.2628$0MRecovery
32
2.8286
223.8%2.2628$0MRecovery
33
2.8134
224.4%2.2628$0MGoldilocks
34
2.7872
225.3%2.2628$0MGoldilocks
35
2.7764
225.6%2.2628$0MGoldilocks
36
2.7702
225.8%2.2628$0MGoldilocks
37
2.7674
225.9%2.2628$0MGoldilocks
38
2.7547
226.4%2.2628$0MGoldilocks
39
2.7502
226.5%2.2628$0MGoldilocks
40
2.6957
228.2%2.2597$0MRecovery
41
2.6901
228.6%2.2628$0MRecovery
42
2.6829
228.5%2.2561$0MGoldilocks
43
2.6813
228.4%2.2528$0MRecovery
44
2.6787
228.6%2.2549$0MRecovery
45
2.6787
338.6%4.1869$0MRecession Fear
46
2.6775
228.6%2.2546$0MRecovery
47
2.6116
2210.9%2.2557$0MGoldilocks
48
2.5921
2211.6%2.2555$0MGoldilocks
49
2.5713
2212.2%2.2518$0MGoldilocks
50
2.5475
2212.3%2.2348$0MGoldilocks
51
2.4390
226.1%1.9970$0MRecovery
52
2.4228
3318.0%4.2219$0MRate Shock
53
2.3839
3311.1%3.8007$0MRecession Fear
54
2.2984
226.3%1.8859$0MGoldilocks
55
1.9846
226.6%1.6344$0MGoldilocks
56
1.8455
2213.1%1.6333$0MRecovery
57
1.8327
337.1%2.8196$0MRecession Fear
58
1.7454
2240.4%2.2529$0MGoldilocks
59
1.7359
2240.7%2.2537$0MGoldilocks
60
1.7184
2241.3%2.2526$0MGoldilocks
61
1.6864
2242.4%2.2522$0MGoldilocks
62
1.6607
2243.3%2.2522$0MGoldilocks
63
1.6552
2243.5%2.2526$0MGoldilocks
64
1.5639
221.3%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
65
1.5562
221.8%2.2628$0MRate Shock
66
1.5548
222.6%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
67
1.5537
222.7%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
68
1.5515
222.0%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
69
1.5501
222.1%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
70
1.5487
222.2%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
71
1.5456
222.4%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
72
1.5452
223.2%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
73
1.5444
222.5%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
74
1.5438
221.3%1.2033$0MGoldilocks
75
1.5421
222.6%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
76
1.5384
222.9%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
77
1.5359
223.0%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
78
1.5352
223.1%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
79
1.5333
223.2%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
80
1.5318
223.3%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
81
1.5296
223.4%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
82
1.5277
223.6%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
83
1.5273
223.6%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
84
1.5223
223.9%2.2628$0MRate Shock
85
1.5190
224.1%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
86
1.5187
224.1%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
87
1.5153
224.3%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
88
1.5142
224.4%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
89
1.5130
224.5%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
90
1.5109
224.6%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
91
1.5037
225.0%2.2605$0MRecession Fear
92
1.4982
225.3%2.2592$0MRecession Fear
93
1.4916
221.7%1.1672$0MRecovery
94
1.4600
227.8%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
95
1.4554
228.1%2.2628$0MRate Shock
96
1.4460
228.7%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
97
1.4430
227.8%2.2350$0MRate Shock
98
1.4408
227.4%2.2228$0MRecession Fear
99
1.4351
227.8%2.2229$0MRecession Fear
100
1.4329
229.0%2.2491$0MRate Shock
101
1.4319
227.5%2.2104$0MRecession Fear
102
1.4290
229.8%2.2628$0MRate Shock
103
1.4281
227.9%2.2158$0MRecession Fear
104
1.4228
2210.2%2.2628$0MRate Shock
105
1.4125
229.6%2.2313$0MRate Shock
106
1.4072
229.5%2.2220$0MRate Shock
107
1.3985
226.5%1.1502$0MGoldilocks
108
1.3919
226.4%1.1435$0MRecovery
109
1.3627
223.4%1.0849$0MGoldilocks
110
1.3261
223.4%1.9599$0MRecession Fear
111
1.3167
2217.8%1.2316$0MRecovery
112
1.2680
226.7%1.0459$0MRecovery
113
1.2221
2222.8%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
114
1.2074
2223.8%2.2628$0MRecession Fear
115
1.1443
222.0%1.6673$0MRecession Fear
116
1.0722
2211.9%1.7386$0MRecession Fear
117
1.0538
2210.8%1.6872$0MRecession Fear
118
0.9710
2215.6%1.6300$0MRecession Fear
119
0.9615
2213.0%1.5785$0MRecession Fear
120
0.9531
335.7%1.4440$0MRecession Fear
121
0.8797
3311.0%1.4121$0MRecession Fear
122
0.8784
3311.2%1.4130$0MRecession Fear
123
0.8214
2216.6%1.4075$0MRecession Fear
124
0.7997
221.6%1.1607$0MRecession Fear
125
0.7850
226.3%0.6447$0MGoldilocks
126
0.7674
225.1%1.1548$0MRecession Fear
127
0.7656
225.3%1.1548$0MRecession Fear
128
0.7635
225.5%1.1548$0MRecession Fear
129
0.7616
224.0%1.1327$0MRecession Fear
130
0.7499
226.5%1.1453$0MRate Shock
131
0.7305
227.3%1.1253$0MRecession Fear
132
0.7202
227.4%1.1111$0MRecession Fear
133
0.7051
2211.1%1.1325$0MRecession Fear
134
0.7026
2211.4%1.1324$0MRecession Fear
135
0.6966
2212.1%1.1327$0MRecession Fear
136
0.6926
2212.7%1.1332$0MRecession Fear
137
0.5911
222.2%0.8634$0MRecession Fear
138
0.5703
226.2%0.8683$0MRecession Fear
139
0.4795
226.5%0.3947$0MGoldilocks
140
0.3424
226.2%0.2808$0MRecovery
141
0.3338
228.4%0.5205$0MRecession Fear
142
0.3281
225.5%0.4918$0MRecession Fear
143
0.2007
224.8%0.1622$0MRecovery
144
0.0216
224.6%0.0323$0MRate Shock
RACS Score· Final regime-adjusted score · higher = stronger
Activists· Independent Conviction Activist / Nimble Trader buyers
Strong Buys· Buyers who entered with > 50% conviction delta
Crowding· Green < 20% (undiscovered) · Red > 40% (fragile)
Conv. Raw· Pre-regime conviction score · compare to RACS to see regime multiplier effect
AUM Behind· Total activist capital in this ticker across all buyers

Signals by Macro Regime

Regime label at the time each signal was generated; baked into the RACS score.

Goldilocks
32
signals · 22%
Recovery
29
signals · 20%
Recession Fear
70
signals · 49%
Rate Shock
13
signals · 9%